Government Updates Weather Forecast Models
The U.S. weather government recently updated the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS).
The model helps predict weather forecasts for many days to weeks in advance. In addition to the increase in members, the upgraded forecast model has an updated set of equations to help determine the weather. Not to be outdone, the resolution for GEFS was also improved from 20.5 miles to 15.5 miles. This means the model can now see and predict weather at a smaller scale with more detail than before.
Perhaps the largest update to GEFS is the increase in forecast lead time. GEFS used to only be able to forecast 16 days in advance, but now it can forecast more than one month in advance, with 35 days of data for meteorologists to sift through. Increasing the forecast lead time helps determine weather patterns and uncertainty farther out.
During the testing stage of the GEFS development, GEFS showed improvement in forecasting severe weather including hurricane tracks and intensity as well precipitation and temperature forecasts from 2-4 weeks out.